Investigating the probability of climate change by rainfall and temperature trend analysis using the Man-Kendall method (Case study: Karaj Dam basin)

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 PhD. Graduate of Hydraulic Structures & Head of Water Resources Balance & Combination Group, Alborz Regional Water Authority

2 Department of Irrigation and Reclamation

3 Director of Water Resources Studies, Alborz Regional Water Authority

4 Head of Applied Research Group, Iran Water Resources Management Company

Abstract

Over the past few decades, many parts of Iran have experienced severe climate events such as droughts and floods, which have a significant impact on water resources in the country. On the other hand, considering the main part of Tehran's water supply through surface water resources and lake dams around it, the issue of the effect of changing the water resources of these lakes and especially the Karaj dam as one of the most important sources of water supply in Tehran is of great importance. In this research, the climatic parameters of two Sierra and Nesa stations located at the upstream of the Karaj dam basin (Amirkabir) were investigated using the Man-Kendall method. The results indicate that the number of days with little rainfall (less than 5 mm), which has no effect on surface water and underground water, has increased. This phenomenon, together with the annual increase recorded by the Nisa station, can lead to severe water crises in the region.

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History

  • Receive Date: 20 May 2025
  • Accept Date: 20 May 2025

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